HIP-4 Round 1 — BTC > $78,213
⏷ NO won
YES = #0
NO = #1
target $78,213
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total volume
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trades
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traders
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wealth transferred (top 10)
Builders
click any row → full builder detail · ranked by volume routedTop Winners round 1 closed-out
PnL captured by trading the price (not by holding to settlement)Top Losers round 1 closed-out
bought too high, sold too low — wrong side of the same tradesYES (#0) — Trade extremes
NO (#1) — Trade extremes
YES Implied Probability vs BTC Mark Price (1-min)
PnL Distribution
Top Trader Patterns — buy/sell timing vs BTC mark price
Each colored series = one of the top 5 winners. Triangles: ▲ buy, ▼ sell. Y axis is the trade price (NO=#1 prob of NO winning, YES=#0 prob of YES winning). BTC mark on right axis (yellow).
Hourly Volume + Trades
Cross-Coin Activity of Top 10 HIP-4 Winners
For each top HIP-4 winner, breakdown of their volume across all coins (BTC, ETH, HIP-3 markets, …). Reveals whether they're HIP-4 specialists or diversified traders.
| Trader | HIP-4 PnL | Total Volume | HIP-4 % | BTC fills | BTC vol | Other coins | Top non-HIP-4 coin |
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Arbitrage Timeline — YES + NO sum vs $1.00
When YES + NO ≠ $1.00, an arbitrage exists. Spikes above $1 = "sell both" arb. Below $1 = "buy both" arb.
Top Arbitrageurs (traded both #0 and #1)
| User | Gross Vol | |Net Pos| | Gross/Net | PnL |
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Top Makers (PnL from providing liquidity)
| User | Fills | Volume | Maker PnL |
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Top Takers (directional bets)
| User | Fills | Volume | Taker PnL |
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